Line of Scrimmage: 5 Teams on the Rise, 5 on the Decline

Football Betting Lines

06/11/2009 - Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The NFL has long been the easiest of the four major professional sports leagues in which to embark upon a rags-to- riches story.

The salary cap, and the ease with which teams are able to shuttle personnel in and out of town, have ensured that there are no Pittsburgh Pirate-like drains on the NFL. Even down-on-their-luck franchises like the Oakland Raiders are capable of spending money in order to improve their product, even if they typically choose to spend as wisely as Michael Jackson on a trip to the Carnival Ride-and-Exotic Animal Warehouse.

Still, the feats pulled off last season by the likes of the Atlanta Falcons, Baltimore Ravens, and Miami Dolphins may have effectively ended what little acceptance of a "rebuilding period" NFL fans had left.

All three went from double-digit loss seasons to the playoffs, and all three did so with first-time NFL head coaches. If that wasn't strange enough, Atlanta and Baltimore defied roughly a generation of league history by winning immediately with rookie quarterbacks. Miami had a cagy veteran, Chad Pennington, under center, but may have pulled off the most amazing feat of the trio by matching the biggest turnaround in NFL history (1-15 to 11-5) and doing it in one of the league's best divisions.

Basically, the three teams ruined it for everybody.

Guys like Steve Spagnuolo of the Rams and Eric Mangini of the Browns can talk about changing the culture all they want, just as long as their ideology takes hold some time before mid-September hits.

Matthew Stafford of the Lions and Mark Sanchez of the Jets can pretty much forget about the phrase "grace period," thanks to the rookie campaigns of Matt Ryan and Joe Flacco.

That a selection of teams will go from the outhouse to the penthouse in 2009 is something of a given, as is the fact that a handful will go from celebrated to eulogized almost overnight.

Our top candidates to climb the ladder this season, followed by our prospective group for which the elevator could be headed to be sub-basement:

RISING

Seahawks

Seattle was what you might call "brutally unwatchable" last season, plummeting to their worst record (4-12) since 1992 and sending Mike Holmgren out with a whimper. What most folks will remember was the injury that sidelined quarterback Matt Hasselbeck for nine games, but Hasselbeck's bad back was far from the team's only major malady - Patrick Kerney's shoulder problem had a crippling effect on the defense as well. Now, Hasselbeck and Kerney are expected back and healthy, and important adjustments have been made on both offense (T.J. Houshmandzadeh) and defense (Aaron Curry, Cory Redding). Plus, new head coach Jim Mora is bound to bring some fresh energy to the field, just as he did during his first year in Atlanta. Look for Seattle to challenge Arizona for the NFC West title in 2009, and for the club's horrid 2008 to eventually look like the aberration it was.

Chiefs

Yes, the presence of new GM Scott Pioli and quarterback Matt Cassel has something to do with Kansas City's appearance on this list, but let's remember that most Bill Belichick disciples have failed, and most quarterbacks have gotten worse when separated from Randy Moss. The bigger keys with Kansas City are that the defense that cost the team so many close games during last year's 2-14 season is maturing and has been upgraded (Mike Vrabel, Zach Thomas, Tyson Jackson), an underrated offense should have some continuity in its second year under coordinator Chan Gailey, and that Kansas City will have a large number of winnable games in what looks like the weakest division in the AFC. Look for Arrowhead Stadium to be rocking again soon.

Lions

Playing the role of the 2008 Dolphins in this year's production...the Detroit Lions. The parallels are many - worst record in the league the year before, no postseason berth of recent vintage, bedrock-low expectations in a high-quality division, new coaching staff and front office, and, most importantly, a wholesale (and much-needed) roster overhaul. Other than holdovers like Calvin Johnson and Ernie Sims, there isn't a lot about the '08 team that stands up to comparison, and that can only be a good thing. New head coach Jim Schwartz is a winner who seems to get it, and if Stafford gives this team anything, we bet they get off the mat sooner than expected. Not saying Detroit is going to the playoffs one year after 0-16, but don't be shocked to see the Lions win six- or-so games and be competitive in many others.

Jaguars

The Jaguars went from a dark horse Super Bowl candidate to the surprising resident of the AFC South basement and, like the Seahawks, had injuries to blame for many of their problems. The offensive line was decimated early, the Jags' formerly-vaunted running game went into the toilet, and the absence of would-be defensive leaders Mike Peterson (benched due to a feud with Jack Del Rio) and Rashean Mathis (missed four games due to injury) left that side of the ball rudderless. But looking at this team on paper heading into 2009, it's hard to envision a repeat of last year's 5-11. The offensive line and receiving corps have both been upgraded, and a new voice on defense (ex-Browns coordinator Mel Tucker) will get that unit's attention. Plus, Del Rio needs to win, so look for this bunch to be focused and motivated.

Raiders

You always have to tread lightly when allowing yourself to believe that the Raiders have turned the corner, but there are more positives coming out of the Black Hole than we've seen in some time. It sure looked like the light came on for JaMarcus Russell during the final month of 2008, and the Raiders bring back the core of a running game that was quietly in the NFL Top 10 in rushing a year ago. The defense has some solid playmakers like elite cover corner Nnamdi Asomugha, though there's no doubt that the team must find a way to stop the run. Moreover, the continuity the team achieved when it removed the interim title from head coach Tom Cable should go a long way. A .500 finish would buy Cable another year to get Oakland back in the hunt for real.

DECLINING

Colts

It hasn't made the Top 10 of offseason NFL stories, but the "retirement" of revered Indy assistant coaches Tom Moore and Howard Mudd is an ominous sign for a team that lost its stranglehold on the AFC South last season. Moore and Mudd will be back as consultants, but Jim Caldwell has made no bones about the fact that there's a new sheriff in town, and we've yet to become convinced that Caldwell knows what he's doing. The running game was average last year due to some problems up front, and there isn't much more talent among that group. There are no meaningful additions to a mediocre defense either, and what's the over-under on games Dwight Freeney and Bob Sanders are able to play together? Peyton Manning is still great, but he'll have too much on his shoulders in a deep, talented AFC South.

Dolphins

Miami was a great story last season, but the defending AFC East champs won't have things nearly as easy in 2009. They'll take no one by surprise after last year's 11-5 finish, and though their variations on the "Wildcat" offense will be more sophisticated, so will the preparation of opposing defenses. The division is better thanks to the return of Tom Brady and the improvement of the Bills offense and Jets defense, and with the exception of the secondary, we don't see a lot of areas where Miami has improved during the offseason. Remember that Bill Parcells' first year in Dallas was his best, and the franchise down-shifted into neutral thereafter. Will that history repeat itself in South Florida?

Panthers

If you're in search of the NFL's most happy-go-lucky atmosphere, probably best to stay out of Charlotte. The residue from last year's playoff meltdown to the Cardinals lingers, and Jake Delhomme is widely viewed as a guy operating on borrowed time. The same could be said for head coach John Fox, who witnessed a mass exodus from his staff this past offseason and could be the next out the door if the team disappoints. Joining his counterpart on the other side of the ball (Steve Smith), the team's best defensive player, Julius Peppers, wants to be traded and has been saddled with the unwanted franchise tag. There is plenty of talent left over from last year's 12-4 finish, but we're going to go ahead and guess that the 2009 Panthers will not be the NFL prototype for team chemistry.

Broncos

New Broncos head coach Josh McDaniels joins the likes of Romeo Crennel, Charlie Weis, and Eric Mangini as a guy trying to copy what he learned about championship football from Bill Belichick. And, as Crennel, Weis, and Mangini have shown us, the copy is never as good as the original. McDaniels has played a bit of a shell game this offseason, presiding over a lot of roster turnover in the name of his "system," but not upgrading the overall talent level appreciably. With the possible exception of a declining Brian Dawkins, one of the league's worst defenses of a year ago isn't much better. The offense should score some points, but casting your lot with Kyle Orton and/or Chris Simms is a major roll of the dice. We've been wrong before, but we bet Denver fans will end up clamoring for the days of Mike Shanahan.

Buccaneers

Like McDaniels, new Buccaneers head coach Raheem Morris is reflective of an NFL hiring trend weighted towards young, energetic coaches who teams hope will become the next Mike Tomlin. But history will show that Tomlin was the rare early-30-something who was indeed ready to be a head coach, and that guys like McDaniels and Morris weren't. The problem is that coaches like Morris, who along with young GM Mark Dominik has parted ways with a lot of veteran talent and replaced it with...well...not much, seem to be operating out of some kind of manual that emphasizes system over talent. But Belichick, Tomlin and other successful coaches have shown that flexibility and quality talent are the cornerstones of coaching success. We'll have to see how quickly Morris learns that lesson, but early indications are that it will not be soon.