Line of Scrimmage: Saints' Night, Manning's Nightmare
Football Betting Lines
02/07/2010 - Miami Gardens, FL (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Raise your umbrella and your Hurricane glass to the New Orleans Saints, who are Super Bowl XLIV champions because they were flat-out better than the Colts in an incredible, exhilarating upset victory that capped off a dream season.
And as you pat the undeniably likable Saints on the back, weep for the equally likable Peyton Manning.
This is one that Manning will have to carry with him for the rest of his days, irrespective of whether he raises another Lombardi Trophy or he doesn't. This was not just a Super Bowl loss. This was a Super Bowl loss to THE SAINTS.
Manning can now look forward to the fact that, in every trip he makes to his native New Orleans for the rest of his life, he will get to listen to his high school buddies and his parents' neighbors and the guy at the rental car counter and the waitress at the restaurant remind him that he lost to the Saints. This will be horrendous, like losing a game of ping-pong to your loudmouth brother-in-law who will never, ever let you forget, and also refuses to play you again.
OK, for Manning, it might just be worse than that. Every accomplishment he will ever accumulate over the rest of his career will be answered by New Orleanians with one, four-word utterance.
A Hall of Fame plaque? Didn't beat the Saints.
Every meaningful NFL passing record? Didn't beat the Saints.
Another Super Bowl title? Didn't beat the Saints (presumably).
Look, Manning is a popular figure in New Orleans, and this is the way it had to be if the Saints wanted to win the first title in their 43-year history. But isn't it ironic that the bone of contention in elevating Manning (31- of-45, 333 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT) into the discussion of the greatest ever is a loss to his dad's team, to the team whose uniform he used to wear in his backyard as a youth?
Meanwhile, if it hadn't been passed already, the torch of local quarterbacking hero was transferred in Miami from the native Manning to the meticulous Texan Drew Brees. Brees was surgical against the Colts, completing 32-of-39 passes for 288 yards and two touchdowns and winning MVP honors in runaway fashion.
Over the final three quarters, in which the Saints outscored the Colts, 31-7, Brees was a mere 29-of-32 for 261 yards, two touchdowns, and no turnovers. He threw one incompletion in the second-half. One. Don't go looking for another Super Bowl performance like that any time soon. Any lingering doubts about whether Brees was just a fantasy stud, a figure like Marino, Fouts or Moon who was a great numbers guy but lacked whatever it took to be a champion, blew away like the ticker-tape littering the Sun Life Stadium field.
Brees, at six-feet-tall in the right shoes, is never going to be the most physically imposing guy in the quarterback club. But with this win, which came just four years after he suffered a potentially career-threatening shoulder injury as a Charger, he has just given pause to every scout who would dismiss a quarterback prospect that lacks something called "an NFL body." Ryan Leaf had a great NFL body, by the way.
Brees' head coach, Sean Payton, was vindicated as well. Many of us scratched our heads back in the winter of 2006, when Payton took on what seemed like a near-hopeless case, one that transcended football. Why, we wondered, would one of the hottest assistants in the NFL accept a job in a destroyed American city, for a team that didn't look ready to win any time soon, for an owner that seemed ready to move his team to San Antonio or Los Angeles or somewhere else? Clearly, Payton saw something the rest of us didn't.
And here he is. A champion and a deserving one.
Then there is New Orleans, the Crescent City, which wins its first major sports championship in thrilling fashion. Much will be made of the Saints' mission to lift spirits in a region that is still working hard to recover from the effects of Hurricane Katrina.
Well, that tale, however heart-warming, is awkwardly told. I'm not quite sure what the Saints fans in Miami who could afford $1500 Super Bowl tickets have to do with the families of the Lower Ninth Ward whose lives were torn apart in August of 2005, but let's hope they can all find some common ground by celebrating the accomplishments of this football team.
Where do the Saints go from here? Hard to say. This should be a very good team again next year, though there are some free agent decisions to be made and who knows whether this season's unbelievable chemistry will hold. Given the ramifications of the broken-down labor talks, and the effect a potential elimination of the salary cap will have on small-market teams, who's to say whether the Saints will be able to compete 10 or even five years down the line.
But these questions are for another time and place. For now, it's on to Mardi Gras, which this year, even more than most, will be one of the wildest celebrations the City of New Orleans has ever seen.
PICKING A WINNER
Though Brees' play will likely serve to define Super Bowl XLIV, the enduring single moment of the game will probably be Tracy Porter's game-sealing 74-yard interception return for a touchdown in the fourth quarter. Down 24-17, Manning had driven the Colts to the Saints 31-yard line, where he had a 3rd- and-5 play. Porter stepped in front of a short pass intended for Reggie Wayne, dashing untouched to the end zone as the pro-New Orleans contingent exploded.
"It was great film study," said Porter of the play. "We knew that on third- and-short they stack, and they like the outside release for the slant. It was great film study by me, a great jump and a great play."
Including the regular season, the Saints defense scored eight touchdowns in 2010.
"It's the kind of play we've run a lot and Porter just made a great play," Manning said.
ANKLES AWAY
After two weeks of talk about the health of his right ankle, Colts defensive end Dwight Freeney did in fact suit up for Indianapolis, and had the game's only sack when he dragged down Brees in the second quarter. That said, the perennial Pro Bowler appeared to be favoring the ankle as the game wore on, and Freeney admitted that it stiffened up on him at halftime. Westwood One's Mark Malone revealed in a sideline report that Freeney's swollen ankle and calf were roughly the same size as the player was being re-taped.
"It's hard to put percentages on it," Freeney said of his health. "Obviously it wasn't 100 [percent]. It was kind of hard. It loosened a little bit in the second half.
THE GAMBLER
Once it worked, once it didn't. Payton rolled the dice with his team trailing 10-3 late in the second quarter, opting to leave his offense on the field on a 4th-and-goal play at the 1-yard line. Pierre Thomas was stood up by linebacker Gary Brackett on the play, handing the ball back to Indianapolis and snuffing out the Saints' best touchdown chance up to that point. New Orleans would, however, force a punt and cut the halftime lead to 10-6 on Hartley's second field goal of the game.
Clearly, Payton's gambling spirit wasn't diminished by the failure. The Saints stunned the Colts by attempting, and recovering, an onside kick to start the second half. Six plays after Jonathan Casillas made the recovery, Brees hit running back Pierre Thomas on a 16-yard screen pass for a touchdown to give the Saints their first lead at 13-10.
"We knew we were going to call it at some point, and we made the decision we were going to do it [at halftime]," Payton said of the onside kick. "At halftime I just told them, 'Hey, we're going to open up the second half with this. It's going to be a great play.'"
OFFICIALLY SPEAKING
Scott Green's officiating crew was not without a few hiccups in Super Bowl XLIV, though to the crew's credit, there was not a call that directly affected the outcome of the contest.
The most controversial decision came in the fourth quarter, when Green overturned a two-point conversion catch by Lance Moore that had been ruled incomplete. Moore did not complete the catch all the way to the ground, and similar plays in the end zone (such as a TD catch by the Raiders' Louis Murphy in Week 1) had been ruled incomplete all season. According to CBS' Boomer Esiason, NFL Director of Officials Mike Pereira said the call was the correct one, because as soon as the ball breaks the plane of the goal line, it's a dead play. That explanation would seem to conflict with previous NFL rulings, though again, it did not impact the final score.
The other major miss came on the Saints' first points of the game. Tackle Zach Strief ran onto the field late and did not report as eligible on Garrett Hartley's second-quarter field goal, which should have resulted in a procedure penalty that pushed the distance of the trifecta from 46 to 51 yards.
ODDS AND ENDS
-Colts coach Jim Caldwell, who was the first rookie coach to reach a Super Bowl since the Raiders' Bill Callahan in 2002, failed to become the first rookie since the 49ers' George Seifert in 1989 to win the big one.
-Saints kicker Garrett Hartley connected on field goals of 46, 44, and 47 yards, becoming the first player in Super Bowl history to hit three field goals of 40 yards or longer.
-The Saints overcame a 10-point deficit, matching the biggest comeback in NFL history. The 1989 Redskins were behind against the Broncos, 10-0, in Super Bowl XXII before winning the game, 42-10.
-At 42 years of age, Colts kicker Matt Stover became the oldest player in Super Bowl history. Stover kicked off the scoring with a 38-yard field goal in the first-quarter, and made two extra-points following Colts touchdowns. Stover also attempted a 51-yard field goal in the fourth quarter, which he missed. Stover had been 0-for-3 from 50 yards plus since 2007, with his last make from that distance coming as a member of the Ravens in 2006.
-Brees' 32 completions tied a Super Bowl record, matching Tom Brady's mark set against the Panthers in Super Bowl XXXVIII.
-With their win, the Saints join the Ravens, Jets, and Buccaneers as teams to prevail in their lone Super Bowl appearance.
-The Saints are the first No. 1 seed to win the Super Bowl since the 2003 Patriots, and the first No. 1 seed from the NFC to take home the title since the 1999 Rams. New Orleans is also the first club since that St. Louis squad to win a Super Bowl after leading the league in scoring.
-During their playoff run, the Saints defeated three quarterbacks - Manning, Brett Favre, and Kurt Warner - who had previously won Super Bowls. No other team in NFL history has accomplished that feat.
"WHO" ELSE WAS LEFT YAWNING?
I'm a pretty decent-sized fan of the The Who. I own Tommy, a couple of Pete Townshend solo albums, and am glad I can now say I saw them play in a live setting. But their halftime mini-set of four songs (including the "See Me, Feel Me" interlude from Tommy) that have been pummeled to death on classic rock radio over the past 25 years, before being run out on the ubiquitous CSI series, left much to be desired. Again, I'm very grateful that the NFL didn't try to pass off world-class hacks Bon Jovi as halftime entertainment, but now that all of the monsters of another generation (McCartney, Petty, Springsteen, and the Stones) have taken their Super Bowl turn, it might be time for the league to re-think the halftime concept.
As for the pregame, while I generally think Carrie Underwood is what is wrong with country music (though not as much as Kenny Chesney), I'm happy to report I thought her understated, classy rendition of the national anthem was very well done. Queen Latifah's "America the Beautiful," meanwhile, was as embarrassing as her and Underwood's eye-rolling Thursday afternoon press conference.
TAKING A BOW
Jerry Rice and Emmitt Smith were the big story when the Pro Football Hall of Fame class was announced on Saturday, though Redskins o-lineman Russ Grimm, Saints pass rusher Rickey Jackson, Vikings defensive tackle John Randle, and two veteran's committee selections - Broncos running back Floyd Little and Lions cornerback Dick LeBeau - were named to the 2010 class as well. Rice and Smith, the NFL's all-time leading receiver and rusher, respectively, figure to hog the spotlight at the induction ceremonies on Aug. 7 in Canton, OH.
Among those who fell short of the votes needed for induction were Vikings wide receiver Cris Carter, Broncos/Ravens tight end Shannon Sharpe, 49ers/Cowboys pass rusher Charles Haley, Bills receiver Andre Reed, Raiders receiver Tim Brown, and Seahawks defensive end Cortez Kennedy, among others. In my mind, the biggest snubs were Carter (who didn't even make the cut-down from 17 to 10, inexplicably) and Sharpe, both of whom had Hall of Fame careers but reflect an apparent bias among Hall of Fame voters against pass-catchers (remember how long it took Art Monk to get in?). Then again, any receiver who made the field in the same year as Rice would have looked puny in comparison.
SUNSHINE STATE SUPERLATIVES
Kudos to the South Florida Super Bowl committee for another job well done in hosting Super Bowl XLIV. After 10 Super Bowls, this is a group that knows what it's doing, and it shows. Three years ago, all of the media festivities took place in Miami. This year they were in Fort Lauderdale, which was a dramatic improvement in terms of location. All of the media hotels were within walking distance of the media center, which is a first for the six Super Bowls I've covered. Next year's event, at the palatial new Cowboys Stadium in Arlington, TX, should be a spectacle to say the least.
Santiago, Chile (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Brazil's Thomaz Bellucci defeated Argentina's Juan Monaco to win the $450,000 Movistar Open tennis event on Sunday. The third-seeded Bellucci downed the second-seeded Monaco 6-2, 0-6, 6-4 in just over two
<< Who Dat? Super Bowl champs! Saints rally to beat Colts
Miami, FL (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Who Dat? Those are the Super Bowl champions -
the New Orleans Saints - for the first time in the history of a franchise and
city that has witnessed its share of tough times.
Drew Brees connected with Jeremy Shock
<< Indy holds slim lead going into fourth quarter
Miami, FL (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Joseph Addai's four-yard touchdown run in the
third quarter has helped the Colts grab a tenuous 17-16 lead over New Orleans
heading into the fourth quarter of Super Bowl XLIV.
Drew Brees has lit a fire for the Sa
<< Colts use goal-line stand, lead Saints at halftime
Miami, FL (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Super Bowl XLIV has been a tale of two very
different quarters, but Indianapolis, vying for a second title in four years,
has managed to hold a 10-6 lead at halftime on the New Orleans Saints.
The Colts used a Pe
<< Stanford thumps USC
Stanford, CA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Kayla Pedersen had 18 points and 14 rebounds
as second-ranked Stanford crushed USC, 77-39.
Nnemkadi Ogwumike had 16 points and 13 rebounds, Jayne Appel added 15 points
and 13 rebounds while Rosalyn Gold-Onwude
Miami, FL (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - In a city that has struggled in both the world of sports and in day-to-day life, Drew Brees has brought a smile to the faces of the New Orleans residents. The party will be rocking for the next few days in the B
Missed opportunities cost Colts >>
Miami, FL (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Peyton Manning was one quarter away from
capturing his second Super Bowl title in four years, but the four-time league
MVP didn't get enough support from his teammates, and in the end a costly
interce
Magic, Hornets collide in Orlando >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Orlando Magic hope to carry the momentum from their big
win at Boston into tonight's home tilt versus the New Orleans Hornets at Amway
Arena.
Orlando posted a 96-89 triumph over the Celtics on Sunday at TD Garden, as
Mavs kick off road trip in Oakland vs. Warriors >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Southwest Division-leading Dallas Mavericks will hit
the road for three games starting with Monday's contest against the Golden
State Warriors at ORACLE Arena.
Dallas will also visit Denver and Oklahoma City on the roa
Spurs resume road trip against Lakers >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The San Antonio Spurs face the toughest test of their
annual Rodeo Road Trip when they face the defending NBA champion Los Angeles
Lakers at Staples Center tonight.
Each year around this time the Spurs hit the road
Football Betting
NFL Football Betting OnlineThe San Francisco 49ers (5-11 SU, 5-10-1 ATS in 2007; 1-1 SU & ATS in pre-season) found some offensive life last week, and they will try to build some momentum on Thursday night as they travel to the Windy City to take on the Chicago Bears (7-9 SU & ATS in 2007; 0-2 SU, 0-1-1 ATS in pre-season) in an NFL matchup that is set to get underway at 8 PM ET at Soldier Field (natural turf) in Chicago.
Thursday, August 21
NFL betting odds: CHICAGO -3 (-120), Total 37
NOTABLE STAT: San Francisco was last in points, last in total offense in 2007
KEY NFL BETTING TREND: SF has lost its last seven SU on pre-season road
In the BetUS NFL pre-season football betting odds, the Bears are listed as a three-point favorite (laying -120), with the total posted at 37 points.
Here are some NFL football betting trends as they relate to this matchup (reflecting numbers going into the 2008 season):
* SF has lost 11 of its last 14 games SU
* SF has covered three of its last 11 games
* SF has lost six of its last seven road games SU
* SF has covered one of its last seven road games
* CHI has covered five of its last eight games
* CHI has played five of its last seven games OVER the total
* CHI has covered four of its last 13 home games
* SF has lost its last seven pre-season road games SU
* CHI has covered two of its last seven home pre-season games
Well, I guess we should congratulate the Bears on making their quarterback choice for the season's opening game, as they have designated Kyle Orton the starter against Indianapolis. The Bears obviously have lost patience with Rex Grossman, and what they do with him at this point is anybody's guess. But suffice it to say that there isn't a quarterback competition anymore, at least in training camp.
Meanwhile, the quarterback competition may also be settled in San Francisco, where the Niners bounced back from a lackluster 18-6 loss to the Raiders, in which they turned the ball over four times, to execute a 34-6 rout of the Packers last Saturday. However, coach Mike Nolan has stopped short of saying that, insisting that the job is still open. But J.T. O'Sullivan, the longshot of the trio of Niner signal-callers who opened camp, will start his third straight pre-season game here. Against Green Bay, O'Sullivan was only 8-for-17, and was intercepted, but he also threw for 9.1 yards an attempt, which included a 59-yard TD pass to Josh Morgan. The others struggled.
Some offensive cohesion is badly needed, in light of the Niners' dismal 2007 campaign, in which they were dead last in the NFL in scoring, with just 13.7 points a game. And O'Sullivan is the guy who is most familiar with offensive coordinator Mike Martz's exacting system, because he learned it last year in Detroit. O'Sullivan will go at least the entire first half and may even last longer. He'll be relieved by Alex Smith, with Shawn Hill doing the mop-up work. Three receivers who were out last week - Bryant Johnson, Ashley Lelie and Arnaz Battle - will miss this game too.
That may hurt a little here, especially since the Bears will be using a lot of their defensive starters. And it's the defense that has been keeping the Bears in games thus far. In fact, the defense and special teams were responsible for the first 19 points Chicago scored against Seattle last time out, as the offense really struggled with Grossman at the controls. But maybe the first-team offense has a chance to settle a little bit as it works more with Orton at the helm.
Certainly we have concerns about the Bears' offensive line, but we like the scenario for them here, especially if O'Sullivan doesn't make some bis plays. The Niners may have nowhere else to turn right now, and they have lost seven straight road games in the pre-season. Let's take Chicago, the three-point favorite in the NFL football betting odds.
CHICAGO -3 (-120) **
(Graded on a scale of 1-4 stars)
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How to bet pro football
There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.
These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.
Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.
Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.
Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.
Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.
The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?
To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.
Home vs. Away Teams
Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.
Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.
Price ranges
Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.
The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.
Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.
Playoff teams
It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.
Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.
This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.
Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.
Scoring defense and scoring offense
Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.
Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.
There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.
The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.
Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.
Scoring margin
An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.
In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.
Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.
In sum
Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.
The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.
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